[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220026 
WIZ000-MNZ000-220200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2250
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...NRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 806...807...

VALID 220026Z - 220200Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS A STORM COMPLEX
EXPANDS AND MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN MN AND NRN WI. A TORNADO OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BECOME THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS BY LATER
THIS EVENING.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM A SFC
LOW ACROSS SRN MN INTO NRN WI. THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS LOCATED
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES ABOVE 3000 J/KG
NEAR THE FRONT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A SUPERCELL THREAT
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE STORMS APPEAR TO BE BECOMING MORE LINEAR
IN NATURE WITH A 78 MPH WIND REPORTED RECENTLY NORTH OF MINNEAPOLIS.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND A LINEAR MCS DEVELOPS...THE MAIN THREAT
SHOULD BECOME WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL BY THE MID TO LATE-EVENING
HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 09/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...

44259121 43659417 43809527 44479570 45159471 45799172
46068940 45758865 45168841 44668869 

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