[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212104 
WYZ000-COZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-212300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2249
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN UT...WRN CO AND SWRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 212104Z - 212300Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN UT. OVERALL MARGINAL NATURE OF SVR THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE NEED FOR A WW. 

LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDICATES CIRRUS WAS CLEARING AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE
LINE OVER ERN UT. CONSEQUENTLY...CONTINUED SFC HEATING WILL SUPPORT
MLCAPE VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AND INTENSIFICATION OF
CONVECTIVE LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
SHEAR / AROUND 50 KTS ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO/ AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE. FURTHER NW...STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL OVER NRN UT AND FAR SWRN WY BEFORE
ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AROUND 01Z.

..CROSBIE.. 09/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...

42181065 41591326 41121366 39971346 39491105 38491151
37941140 37721062 38100885 39310790 40160741 41100741
42350850 

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