[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212024 
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-212200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2248
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL WI...SRN MN...EXTREME
ERN SD...NWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 212024Z - 212200Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER
AFTERNOON ALONG AND N OF SFC WARM FRONT -- ANALYZED ON SFC MAP FROM
NEAR AUW-HCD TO SFC LOW OVER S-CENTRAL SD.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

SFC MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS GREATEST MOISTURE IN AN
EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY AIDED PLUME FROM MSP AREA SWD TOWARD FSD THEN
SEWD TO NEAR SUX...WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY 70S F. FARTHER
E...MOISTURE FIELD IS MORE FRAGMENTED WITH DEW POINTS AS LOW AS
40S/50S IN ERN IA/SRN WI AND MID 60S JUST N OF SFC WARM FRONT. CINH
APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER N-CENTRAL WI FRONTAL SEGMENT
WHERE TEMPS ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT AS WARM AS FARTHER SE...AND
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTIVE TOWERS BETWEEN LANGLADE AND
EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES.  DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SW ACROSS MN SHOULD BE
DELAYED FOR ANOTHER 1-3 HOURS BY STRONGER CAPPING...HOWEVER
INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z.
CAP STRENGTH INCREASES EVEN MORE WITH SWWD EXTENT FROM WRN PORTION
OF MN/IA BORDER...BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...MORNING 700 MB
ANALYSES AND RUC CINH PROGS.  THIS WILL MAKE CONVECTIVE/SEVERE
POTENTIAL MORE CONDITIONAL INTO SD AND NWRN IA.  VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS WHOLE
CORRIDOR.  PROFILERS...VWP AND RUC FCST HODOGRAPHS ALL SHOW ENLARGED
HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH UP TO 200 J/KG ALONG AND N OF SFC WARM
FRONT. 

ANY ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND...WHILE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS MORE DEPENDENT ON STORM
SCALE AND LOCALIZED BOUNDARY PROCESSES.

..EDWARDS.. 09/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR...

44659700 45109655 45439487 45718988 45638911 45248854
44928842 44778861 44598899 44478997 44269289 43739513
43389616 43209660 43289705 44109708 

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