[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 210048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210047 
FLZ000-210245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2246
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FLA AND THE FLA KEYS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 805...

VALID 210047Z - 210245Z

GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN WITH PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE BAND AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS WWD ACROSS FAR SRN FLA AND
THE FLA KEYS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
WW 805 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z...GIVEN CONTINUED WWD
MOVEMENT OF HURRICANE RITA AWAY FROM THE REGION ALONG WITH DIURNAL
STABILIZATION.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED FOR THE
GREATER MIAMI METRO AREA AS PRIMARY STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND WILL
REMAIN SW OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CELL
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA AND THUS WW WILL NOT BE
CLEARED ATTM FOR THIS AREA. BOTH MIA AND EYW 00Z SOUNDINGS AND VWP/S
STILL INDICATE MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR / 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 100
M2/S2/. GIVEN A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL CONTINUE. AS LOW LEVELS COOL/STABILIZE...TEMPS FALL INTO THE
UPPER 70S...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
HURRICANE RITA AWAY FROM THE AREA...A NEW WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED AFTER
05Z.

..CROSBIE.. 09/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW...

26297996 26338173 24458234 24448062 

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