[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202252 
NCZ000-VAZ000-210015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2243
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0552 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...CNTRL/ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 804...

VALID 202252Z - 210015Z

CONTINUE WW.

WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH
VIRGINIA...AND REMAINS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN A
NARROW BROKEN BAND FROM THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA INTO THE
DANVILLE AREA. CLUSTER OF STORMS WEST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF DANVILLE
APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH NOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

EVOLUTION OF A SMALL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME...AS UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION WEAKENS INHIBITION NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE RALEIGH-DURHAM
AREA.  THIS IS ON NOSE OF PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE...WHERE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED.  WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW AND
SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK...ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING PROVIDES
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT BEYOND NEXT HOUR
OR TWO.  BUT...GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER STORMS.

..KERR.. 09/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

35917999 36537932 36717842 36577758 36187717 35557778
35207839 34907942 35087983 35418031 

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