[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202014 
NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-202215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2242
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...AND SRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202014Z - 202215Z

SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS DE...ERN/SRN MD AND SRN NJ. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. GIVEN LIMITED SPATIAL AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR
THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 

SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE HAS AIDED IN SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY OF MD NEWD
INTO SRN NJ. AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WAS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
/AROUND 35 KTS / AND MODERATE WIND FIELDS IN THE MID LEVELS SUPPORT
AT LEAST SOME MARGINAL DMGG WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES
OFFSHORE.

..CROSBIE.. 09/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

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