[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202336 
CAZ000-210030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2244
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SAN JOAQUIN...SRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 202336Z - 210030Z

STRONG SURFACE HEATING...AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OUT OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY INTO ADJACENT COASTAL RANGES...HAVE SUPPORTED
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN CYCLONIC
ARC ALONG  LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH CLOSED LOW SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS.  TEMPERATURES AROUND 90F
MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000
J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY MID/UPPER JET. 
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS DEEPER INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...PERHAPS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY.  THEREAFTER...WITH ONSET
OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN.

..KERR.. 09/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...MTR...

38552225 38872125 38402050 37681962 37061937 35811934
35881988 36152004 36982033 37662110 37932168 

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