[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201956 
ARZ000-202130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2241
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201956Z - 202130Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM
THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO S OF ARG TO S OF FYV AND THEN WWD ACROSS NRN
OK.  TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S INVOF THIS FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF
2000-2500 J/KG.  LOCAL VWPS/PROFILERS AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW LIGHT WLY WINDS ABOVE GROUND VEERING TO NWLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER TROPOSPHERE WITH ROUGHLY 30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

CONTINUED HEATING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT THE
INITIATION OF DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS...DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT.  WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER
WEAK...STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
SEVERE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 09/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...

35629431 36069422 36309317 36329182 36299117 36099063
35809042 35349053 35009119 35089212 35129340 35279408 

WWWW