[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151609
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151609 
NHZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-151745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2210
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY EWD INTO CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151609Z - 151745Z

POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH MOST
INTENSE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

AS OF 1555Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS INTENSIFYING FROM W
OF ALB TO NEAR BHM...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.  MODIFICATION OF 12Z ALB SOUNDING FOR CURRENT
SURFACE CONDITIONS INDICATES THAT PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS LARGELY
UNCAPPED WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  INSPECTION OF 12Z
UPPER-AIR DATA SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...IS LIKELY AIDING THIS
DEVELOPMENT.

GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 40-45 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. 
PERSISTENT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION FROM FAR SERN NY/LONG ISLAND NEWD
ACROSS CT/RI AND ERN MA SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL
EXIST BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING STORMS AND THIS
SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF SERN NY INTO WRN MA
AND SRN VT.

..MEAD.. 09/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

42257518 43257344 43677160 43417115 42567131 41877244
41647383 41677476 

WWWW