[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151843 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-152015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2211
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR WWD ACROSS N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151843Z - 152015Z

POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
AREA.  CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

AS OF 1830Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM FAR
SWRN AR/NERN TX WWD TO N OF MWL.  AIR MASS S OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME MODERATE UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ THIS AFTERNOON
OWING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS OF AROUND
70 F.  INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG TRAILING PORTION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN MO
IS LIKELY AIDING IN THIS DEVELOPMENT.  LOCAL VWPS AND RUC PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS INDICATE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WINDS THROUGH THE
DEPTH OF THE BUOYANCY PROFILE WITH 35-45 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SPEED
SHEAR.

CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SRN AR. HERE...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING COUPLED WITH MORE NORMAL ORIENTATION OF
SMALL MCS OVER SWRN AR/SERN OK/NERN TX TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS
MAY SUPPORT SOME UPSCALE SCALE GROWTH AND RESULTANT COLD POOL
ORGANIZATION.

FARTHER TO THE W ACROSS N TX...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED.

..MEAD.. 09/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...SJT...

34279378 34479283 34289138 33749119 33169146 32809469
32349832 32639926 32879908 33649562 

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