[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151148 
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-151215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2209
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN N TX/SRN OK INTO PARTS OF WRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 792...

VALID 151148Z - 151215Z

GREATEST SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS SRN OK THROUGH THE
MORNING.  A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED AS THIS THREAT TRANSLATES EWD
INTO SERN OK AND PARTS OF WRN AR.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THE STRONGEST STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS SRN OK...WITH THIS REGION LOCATED TO THE N OF AN E-W SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED GENERALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY.  A 40
KT SSWLY LLJ NOSING INTO SRN/CENTRAL OK WILL CONTINUE TO VEER THIS
MORNING...SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFTING THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS EWD.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS OK/AR COMBINED
WITH THETA-E/WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN OK THIS
MORNING WITH STORMS TRAINING EWD.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL
WW.

..PETERS.. 09/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

35289855 35339687 35559508 35509379 34479358 33829428
33789656 33879847 33899979 34339980 35029923 

WWWW