[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 142329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142328 
OKZ000-TXZ000-150100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2205
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX AND SWRN/SCNTRL OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 790...

VALID 142328Z - 150100Z

WHILE A TORNADO OR TWO COULD STILL OCCUR THIS EVENING ACROSS NWRN TX
AND SRN OK...THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TRANSITIONING INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING
WIND SCENARIO THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.

SUPERCELLS ERUPTED QUICKLY ACROSS NWRN TX LATE THIS AFTN AND HAS
MADE FOR A MESSY MESOSCALE SITUATION AS CELLS COMPETE/INTERACT. 
PRIMARY SUPERCELL OVER SRN FOARD COUNTY IS BEING SEEDED FROM THE SW
BY OTHER UPDRAFTS OVER KING/NRN KNOX COUNTIES. IF THIS STORM CAN
MANAGE TO MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE INFLOW...DOWNSTREAM BACKED LL FLOW
AND LOW LCLS MAY SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS WRN N TX NEAR/S OF
KSPS.  OTHERWISE...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...LEFT-SPLITS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNEWD WITH ADDITIONAL
STORMS DEVELOPING INTO SWRN/SCNTRL OK THROUGH THE EVENING.  MLCAPES
OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 75-90 KTS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL INITIALLY.  PRIND THAT
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AND DEVELOP A SUFFICIENT
COLD POOL FOR A POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND EVENT FROM NWRN/NCNTRL
TX-SWRN OK NEWD INTO SCNTRL AND PERHAPS CNTRL OK.

..RACY.. 09/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

34180154 35169691 33439701 32490152 

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