[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 142203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142202 
OKZ000-TXZ000-150000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2204
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN TX PNHDL...CNTRL/NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 142202Z - 150000Z

A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX PNHDL EWD
INTO CNTRL/NRN OK BY EARLY EVENING.  

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP ENEWD FROM THE TX PNHDL INTO
CNTRL/NRN OK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH SPREADS EWD.  MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
A HIGH THETA-E AIR MASS /PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES/ SITUATED ALONG/S OF A
BOUNDARY FROM NERN OK INTO THE CNTRL TX PNHDL. THE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG TO THE S OF THIS FRONT.

MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SUPERCELLS NOW OVER
THE TX S PLAINS WILL DEVELOP ENEWD INTO THE TORNADO WATCH ACROSS
SWRN OK/NWRN TX.  KINEMATIC PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
LEFT-MOVING MEMBERS TO MOVE RAPIDLY NNEWD INTO PARTS OF WCNTRL/CNTRL
OK THROUGH 00Z.  OTHERWISE...OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EWD FROM THE KAMA AREA EWD ALONG/N OF A SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY TOWARD THE
ENID AND TULSA AREAS LATER THIS EVENING.

..RACY.. 09/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA...

35009821 34779959 34390148 35630163 36640075 36889874
36909643 36569564 35909575 35299647 35129762 

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