[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141927 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-142100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK INTO SRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141927Z - 142100Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM S OF MLC TO NEAR
DEQ TO LLQ IN SERN AR. AIR MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS HOT AND MOIST
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER 18Z SHV SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT RELATIVELY
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE LIMITING MLCAPES TO 1000-1500 J/KG. 
CONTINUED BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

CURRENT DEQUEEN AR PROFILER SHOWS RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE
LOWEST 5 KM AGL...THOUGH UPSTREAM PURCELL OK PROFILER INDICATES A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS.  GIVEN THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...IT APPEARS THAT SOME
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD.. 09/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

34149582 34509613 34959558 34759445 34349284 34089167
33819110 33239129 33009202 33349344 33799481 

WWWW