[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141838
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141838 
OKZ000-TXZ000-142015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2200
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX INTO SWRN/S-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141838Z - 142015Z

THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 20Z.

LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT FROM S OF
CVS TO S OF LTS TO S OF TUL.  A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ALSO
NOTED S OF THIS FRONT FROM S OF SPS TO S OF ADH.  MEANWHILE...A WEAK
DRYLINE OR PRESSURE TROUGH WAS SITUATED FROM THE INTERSECTION OF
SURFACE FRONT OVER THE SRN TX PNHDL GENERALLY SWD TO JUST W OF 6R6. 
RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES S OF THE FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO AROUND 90 F OVER W-CNTRL AND
PORTIONS OF NWRN TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  WHEN COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F...AIR MASS HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA INDICATE THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM ARE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
WITH 50-60 KT WSWLY WINDS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ON THE TUCUMCARI
NM PROFILER.  INCREASING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER SERN NM INTO WRN
TX MAY BE INDICATIVE OF THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING
ACTING ON WRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS.

SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIKELY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM VICINITY OF DRYLINE/TROUGH OVER
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/W-CNTRL TX NEWD ALONG FRONT AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER NWRN TX AND SWRN/S-CNTRL OK.  CURRENT JAYTON TX
PROFILER INDICATES THAT WINDS HAVE VEERED TO SWLY ABOVE THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EXPECT THAT LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL BACK WITH HODOGRAPHS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES.

..MEAD.. 09/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

33160080 33970090 34340046 34819883 35279714 35029634
34509619 33919643 33549673 33289830 33029950 

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