[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141750 
NCZ000-VAZ000-141945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2199
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC / EXTREME SERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141750Z - 141945Z

THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A
TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S OVER MOST OF
THE REGION. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
HIGH.  HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING FARTHER N INTO NERN NC
AND SERN VA...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S.

AS OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A NEWD DIRECTION...SURFACE
WINDS WILL BACK OVER NERN NC AND SERN VA AND WILL HELP ADVECT
WARMER...MORE UNSTABLE AIR SWD...WHILE ALSO MAINTAINING FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR ROTATION WITHIN STORMS AND BRIEF TORNADOES.

..JEWELL.. 09/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

35567544 35277553 34727660 34757716 34967772 35477828
36067832 37037797 37047607 36387579 

WWWW