[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112056 
NDZ000-SDZ000-112230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2174
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO PARTS OF S CNTRL/SE NORTH
DAKOTA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 112056Z - 112230Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
POSSIBILITY OF WW.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS INHIBITION FOR MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER PARCELS IS WEAKENING IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING TO THE EAST/
NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. 
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 60S...CAPE IS
NOW ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG...AND THIS MAY INCREASE FURTHER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  

THOUGH PRIMARY UPPER IMPULSE IS WELL TO THE WEST...LIFTING FROM
MONTANA INTO SASKATCHEWAN...MODELS SUGGEST WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
/WIND SHIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS BETWEEN NOW
AND 00Z.  THIS WILL WEAKEN CAP FURTHER...AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
INITIATION APPEARS TO BE EAST/NORTHEAST OF MOBRIDGE SD INTO THE
VICINITY OF JAMESTOWN ND...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME FOCUSED.  

GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...A
SUPERCELL OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE.  POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO EXISTS...BUT LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..KERR.. 09/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

45730002 46669932 47079847 46899738 46059716 45569770
45429828 45049905 44859990 45350031 

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