[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 100137
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100137 
AZZ000-100300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0837 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 100137Z - 100300Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
ACROSS ERN AZ. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO
WARRANT A SEVERE WW.

WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NV
WITH WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS SRN CA AND
AZ THIS EVENING. THE LIFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING NWD FROM NRN MEXICO THROUGH ERN AZ. AT
THE SFC...DEWPOINTS IN SERN AZ ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH MLCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL VAD
WIND PROFILERS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT. THE STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH COMBINED
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH
SHOULD SUSTAIN A THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THIS
EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 09/10/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

32970905 32530934 32311001 32571091 33331133 34231136
34861093 35061030 34790954 33790909 

WWWW