[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091807 
COZ000-WYZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-092000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...UT...FAR NRN AZ...SWRN WY...AND FAR WRN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091807Z - 092000Z

INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL UT
DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR NRN AZ...WRN
CO...AND SWRN WY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WW WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. 

AT 18Z...WV IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONG CLOSED LOW LOCATED NEAR
THE CENTRAL CA/NV BORDER IS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING ENEWD ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN IN ADVANCE OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AXIS LOCATED
ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST. ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN UPPER FORCING/DEEP
PVA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG/EAST OF SURFACE WIND SHIFT NOW
ACROSS FAR WRN UT SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IN CENTRAL
UT VICINITY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S IN
CENTRAL UT...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS ERN UT INTO WRN CO.
MLCAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1500-2500 J/KG IN ADVANCE OF UPPER
FORCING WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR TO 40-45KT SHOULD
RESULT IN LONG-LIVED CELLS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA OF CENTRAL UT. EXTENT OF
DESTABILIZATION EWD INTO WRN CO AND INTO SWRN WY IS LESS CLEAR AT
THIS TIME. EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CO
MOUNTAINS HAVE COOLED THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS WRN
CO...HOWEVER...SOME RECOVERY IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EWD
EXTENT OF SEVERE TSTM THREAT WILL BE MONITORED AS ACTIVITY INCREASES
IN UT.

..BANACOS.. 09/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

38341358 41051280 41881168 41870948 41460876 40630858
38090842 37110898 36740931 36341102 36521220 37161336 

WWWW