[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091238 
MNZ000-WIZ000-NDZ000-091315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2169
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND / NRN MN

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091238Z - 091315Z

THE AREA ENCOMPASSING ERN ND INTO NRN MN WILL BE UPGRADED TO A
SLIGHT RISK IN THE UPCOMING 13Z CONVECTIVE DAY 1 OUTLOOK (SWODY1).  


WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR ERN ND INTO NWRN MN...GIVEN ONGOING STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION...AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.  12Z SOUNDINGS AT
BIS/ABR INDICATED A DESTABILIZATION PROCESS IN PLACE AND OCCURRING
SINCE 00Z...GIVEN LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTENING AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS /1. OVER SERN WY...2. OVER
ERN MT...AND 3. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA/.  IN ADDITION...THESE
SOUNDINGS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL WLY WINDS
SUSTAINING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES FOR ROTATION WITH THE
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

..PETERS.. 09/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS...

47690022 48659958 48919896 48959739 49219488 48339112
47569085 46779216 46119287 46189604 46149855 46390012 

WWWW