[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 092055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092054 
NDZ000-SDZ000-092230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2171
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S CNTRL  NORTH DAKOTA...N CNTRL SOUTH
DAKOTA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 092054Z - 092230Z

THOUGH PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE SEEMS RATHER LOW...AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL OR TWO IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION IS BECOMING FOCUSED ALONG WARM
FRONTAL ZONE EAST SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK INTO AREAS WEST NORTHWEST OF
ABERDEEN...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE NOW EXCEEDS 1500 J/KG.  THIS IS ON
NOSE OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITHIN BROADER SCALE ANTICYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW REGIME.  VERY WARM LAYER IN THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE IS
CAPPING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL FORCING COULD WEAKEN INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY
FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING.  CLOUD COVER GENERATED BY IMPULSE IS ADDING TO
UNCERTAINTY...BUT IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO BETWEEN NOW AND THE
23-00Z TIME FRAME.

..KERR.. 09/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

47190073 47419952 46949838 46369807 45729858 45469876
45739981 45980021 46670073 

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