[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091050 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-091215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2168
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0550 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN ND INTO NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091050Z - 091215Z

ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY-MID MORNING.

10Z SURFACE MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED A NW-SE WARM FRONT OVER SD...
WITH PERSISTENT PRESSURE FALLS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS ND. 
THESE SFC PRESSURE FALLS ARE INDICATIVE OF ASCENT/WAA ASSOCIATED
WITH A 35 KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO ND/WRN MN.  ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS SPREADING INTO THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A WELL-DEFINED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER SERN WY PER WV IMAGERY.  CENTRAL
ND TO NWRN MN ARE ALSO WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 55 KT WLY MID
LEVEL JET RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL ASCENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
GIVEN THIS DEEP LAYER ASCENT...LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NEWD
IS REACHING THE LFC ACROSS ND ATTM AS INDICATED BY REGIONAL RADARS
WITH THE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID AND LOW LEVEL JET STREAKS ARE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SOME STORMS TO ROTATE...WHILE STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY
SUPPORT HAIL WITH THESE ELEVATED ROTATING STORMS.

..PETERS.. 09/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

47430073 48080022 48269874 48239698 47859580 46999501
46069572 45879722 45969932 45960030 46580092 

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