[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 082217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082217 
ILZ000-082345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2167
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 775...

VALID 082217Z - 082345Z

A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE SEVERE THREAT BECOMES MARGINAL EARLY
THIS EVENING. A WW SE OF THE CURRENT WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN ERN IA IS
SUPPORTING A LINE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN IL. THE IS LINE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND IS NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING SEWD FROM SRN IA EWD INTO CNTRL IL AND CNTRL IND. MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS SHOWN BY
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EXTENDS AS FAR EAST AS FAR WRN IL. EAST OF
THIS...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR DROPS SUBSTANTIALLY AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS CNTRL IL. A FEW OF
THE STRONGER STORMS IN THE LINE COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER HOUR BEFORE THE LINE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY.

..BROYLES.. 09/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...

39759104 40339094 40789031 40548880 39728808 39118837
38898948 39669098 

WWWW