[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 080124
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080124 
SDZ000-080330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2160
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0824 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 080124Z - 080330Z

SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING ACROSS WRN SD WILL SPREAD EWD INTO CNTRL
SD. THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF THE STORMS EXPAND IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD
ACROSS NRN NEB. THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -7 C ACROSS WRN AND SRN SD. A CAPPING
INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NRN AND ERN SD BUT THE CAP IS
WEAKENING ACROSS CNTRL SD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM/GFS/RUC SOLUTIONS WITH
MCS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONGLY VEERING WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR FROM 700 TO 300 MB AS SHOWN ON THE RAPID
CITY SOUNDING. THIS IS CREATING MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A MARGINAL TORNADO POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE DUE TO THE SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES.

..BROYLES.. 09/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

43220039 43670178 44540215 45280129 45279968 44009881 

WWWW