[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 080700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080659 
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-081000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN SD...SWRN MN...NWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 080659Z - 081000Z

LARGE TSTM CLUSTER INITIALLY OVER E-CENTRAL SD IS FCST TO
PERSIST...PERHAPS EXPAND AS IT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS SWRN MN INTO NWRN
IA THROUGH APPROXIMATELY  11Z. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
INTERMITTENT -- CONSISTING PRIMARILY OF HAIL.  GREATER HAZARD MAY
RESULT FROM HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HOUR COMMON WITHIN
MCS...ISOLATED AREAS OF 3-4 INCHES/HOUR IN MOST INTENSE CORES OF
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.  MERGING/TRAINING OF ECHOES WILL RESULT IN
HEAVY RAIN RATES PERSISTING FOR 2 HOURS IN SOME LOCALES.

6Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW INVOF PIR...ALONG
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH YKN AREA...BECOMING
QUASISTATIONARY FARTHER SW DOWN MO VALLEY.  SFC WARM FRONT OVER SERN
SD SHOULD DRIFT NWD AND REMAIN S OF PRIMARY MCS...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ALONG PARALLEL SEGMENT OF FRONT LOCATED NEAR 850 MB LEVEL. 
MCS PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT INTO MOIST 20-30 KT SWLY LLJ SHOULD KEEP
OVERALL MOVEMENT S OF E...AND MAINTAIN FAVORABLY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED INFLOW LAYER. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL COMBINE
WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL ASCENT -- ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ERN ND/CENTRAL SD -- TO
MAINTAIN FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES.  RESULT WILL BE ELEVATED
MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG AMIDST ABOUT 1.25 INCH PW.

CONVECTIVE MODE WITHIN MCS SHOULD BE MIX OF MULTICELLS AND
SHORT-LIVED/HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELLS...WHERE BOTH HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL RISKS WILL BE ENHANCED BY EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCTION
WITHIN AREAS OF MIDLEVEL ROTATION.  EXPECT 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEARS
FOR ELEVATED PARCELS.

..EDWARDS.. 09/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR...

43259645 43809714 44489839 44939791 45059673 44829584
44399437 43369412 42829524 42969600 

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