[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 072340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072340 
NEZ000-COZ000-080145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 072340Z - 080145Z

LARGE HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED WITH THE GREATEST THREAT LIKELY EARLY THIS EVENING.

CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY-STATIONARY FRONT OVER ERN WY
EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS WRN AND NRN NEB. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH MUCAPE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F. THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL MOVE SEWD INTO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...BACKED SFC WINDS AND WLY FLOW ALOFT IS
CREATING VERTICAL SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KT SUGGESTING A SUPERCELL THREAT
MAY EXIST WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
500 MB TEMPS AROUND -10 C WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER MORE
PERSISTENT STORMS.

..BROYLES.. 09/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

40910269 41080374 42180399 42880338 42720197 41340185 

WWWW