[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 072301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072301 
KSZ000-COZ000-080100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2158
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/FAR WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 072301Z - 080100Z

STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER WRN AND
NRN NEB WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ERN CO. A VORTICITY
MAX ANALYZED BY THE RUC IS MOVING EWD ACROSS NE CO AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS SUPPORTING DEVELOPING STORMS. THE STORMS
ARE LOCATED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED
WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS SHOWN BY REGIONAL PROFILERS
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM
WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE HAIL FORMATION WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE
THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY
DECREASING.

..BROYLES.. 09/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

37640267 38110322 39730361 40530322 40470247 39610177
38410167 37830195 37630260 

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