[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 070426
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070426 
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-070700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 PM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB....SERN SD...SWRN MN...NWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 070426Z - 070700Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CNTRL/NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL.

WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SCNTRL SD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING QG-FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE...LARGE SCALE UPR JET COUPLING...AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS A FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST TSTMS WILL LIKELY HAVE UPDRAFTS ROOTED
AROUND 700MB BASED ON LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THIS REGION WERE CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY 30-40KT
WLY FLOW IN THE UPR PORTIONS OF THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR A COUPLE OF MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT
UPDRAFTS. SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN HAIL.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN
SD...SWRN MN...AND PERHAPS PARTS OF NWRN IA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

..CARBIN.. 09/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

43019723 42779846 42839984 43050039 43490015 43979950
44379738 44429635 44399541 44289481 43999456 43449563 

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