[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071743 
MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-071945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MN...NE IA...CNTRL/SRN WI INTO NRN LWR MI

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 071743Z - 071945Z

STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SEVERE THREAT STILL SEEMS LIMITED AT BEST...AND NEED FOR A WW IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IS STALLING
UPSTREAM...ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN IOWA...AHEAD
OF SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY.  BOUNDARY IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION
WITH SURFACE HEATING...AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MIXED
LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG.  FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH PEAK HEATING SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 

MOST EXTENSIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EAST SOUTHEAST OF LA CROSSE INTO
AREAS WEST THROUGH NORTH OF MILWAUKEE...AS DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW
FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
IMPULSES OVERSPREADS FRONTAL ZONE.  CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME SOUTH OF STRONGER
WESTERLIES...BUT EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING
SEVERE LIMITS. OTHERWISE...STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..KERR.. 09/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

44649053 44708926 44838761 44998643 44978546 43898598
43108725 42868974 42649079 42539236 43009272 43869159 

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