[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 062248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062247 
NEZ000-070045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2154
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0547 PM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 062247Z - 070045Z

STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN NEB. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS
LIMITED AT THIS TIME.

WEAK FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED WEST TO EAST ACROSS NRN NEB WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. THIS
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE AIDED ON WRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT BY A WEAK
MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EAST FROM NERN CO. THIS IMPULSE IS LIKELY
DRIVING ONGOING ACTIVITY FROM GRANT AND HOOKER COUNTIES SWD ACROSS
MCPHERSON COUNTY. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG ERN PORTIONS
OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY WHERE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERSECT
THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER ANTELOPE AND MADISON COUNTIES.

EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER 20-40KT ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD FOSTER
STORM PERSISTENCE WITH BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ALONG WRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WHERE LATEST OBJECTIVE
DATA SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR. HOWEVER...
OVERALL FORCING AND INSTABILITY APPEAR MARGINAL TO SUPPORT A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS EVENING.

..CARBIN.. 09/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

41719750 41360125 41540209 41730247 42010266 42440161
42619899 42479692 

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