[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 062018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062018 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-062145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2153
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/WRN KS/SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 062018Z - 062145Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EVOLVING WITHIN DESTABILIZING AIRMASS
ACROSS FAR ERN CO AND ADJACENT WRN KS/SWRN NEB.  

DAYTIME HEATING OF MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS YIELDED 1000 TO
1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE...INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THIS
REGION.  ISOLATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING INVOF BOUNDARY ATTM...WITH
SOME ENHANCEMENT OF UVV POSSIBLY RESULTING FROM WEAK VORT MAX
EVIDENT OVER NERN CO.  

THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS MARGINAL WITH
RESPECT TO LARGE-SCALE POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.  THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW AT 5 TO 10 KT BENEATH 20 KT WLYS AT MID-LEVELS IS
YIELDING 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR NEAR 30 KT...LATEST GRENADA AND MCCOOK WIND
PROFILERS SHOW VERY WEAK FLOW FIELD IN THE LOWEST FEW KM. 
THEREFORE...WITH WEAKLY-ORGANIZED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED
ATTM...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND ISOLATED.

..GOSS.. 09/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

41280285 41750201 42050064 41690025 41070038 39750052
38000042 37560132 38130275 40230247 

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