[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 060418
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060418 
MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-060545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MN...WRN WI...SERN SD...NWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 770...771...772...

VALID 060418Z - 060545Z

WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE CONTINUING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN. A NEW WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN SD INTO NWRN IA AS WW 770
EXPIRES.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN TONIGHT FEATURES
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT AND WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP 50KT SWLY LOW LEVEL
JET. RESULTANT STRONG ASCENT IS CONTINUING TO ACT ON WARM AND MOIST
AIR MASS AND FUEL WELL-ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER
THE REGION. ONE ARCING LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM NRN MN INTO CNTRL
MN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND MESO HIGH IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LINE...OVER NCNTRL MN. RECENTLY...CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING ON
THIS COMPLEX INDICATING PERHAPS A GRADUAL DECLINE IN INTENSITY.
HOWEVER...A FEW LEWP SEGMENTS WITHIN THE BOWING LINE WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

THE SECOND BOWING COMPLEX EXTENDS FROM WCNTRL MN ACROSS SWRN MN AND
TRAILS WWD INTO SERN SD. A WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND MESO HIGH
EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...ACROSS ERN SD. LOW LEVEL JET
IMPINGING ON THE SWRN FLANK OF THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
REGENERATIVE DEEP CONVECTION WITH A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN. LINE
SEGMENTS ORIENTED FAVORABLY TO THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO
POSE A THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS. A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS THIS
ACTIVITY TRACKS GRADUALLY ESEWD ACROSS SERN SD AND INTO NWRN IA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 09/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

43119456 43079606 42929658 42959963 43749934 44209613
45309564 45959538 46749425 47939386 48569352 48459131
43569326 

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