[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 060400
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060400 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-060500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2150
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB INTO NW/NCNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 769...

VALID 060400Z - 060500Z

PRIMARY HAZARDS CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
PERHAPS ISOLD LARGE HAIL ACROSS VALID PORTION OF WW 769 ACROSS
EXTREME SCNTRL NEB INTO NW/NCNTRL KS. REMAINING PORTION OF WW 769
MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 05Z.

PRIMARY THREAT NOW APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SRN
PORTION OF WW 769 ACROSS NCNTRL/NW KS. AT 04Z...TWO DISTINCT AREAS
OF WEST-EAST ORIENTED SLOW MOVING TSTMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WERE
OCCURRING FROM DECATUR COUNTY KS EWD INTO NRN OSBORNE/JEWELL
COUNTIES IN NCNTRL KS...WHILE AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF TSTMS WAS
OCCURRING ACROSS WALLACE/LOGAN COUNTIES JUST SOUTH OF I-70 IN NW KS.

INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL JET /ALREADY 30-35 KTS PER REGIONAL
PROFILERS/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THIS REGION. AMBIENT SOURCE AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...WITH 00Z DODGE CITY RAOB SAMPLING
1.41 INCHES. RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 IN/HR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON A
LOCALIZED BASIS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WIND THREAT NOW APPEARS MINIMAL GIVEN LOSS OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT/FORWARD PROPAGATION. POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR AN
ISOLD/EMBEDDED LARGE HAILSTONE OR TWO GIVEN REMNANT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 05Z GIVEN DIMINISHING
WIND/HAIL THREATS.

..GUYER.. 09/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...

40290075 40589916 40569763 38889784 38410017 38320160
38630207 39250203 39910150 

WWWW