[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 042232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042232 
MTZ000-050030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2141
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0532 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 042232Z - 050030Z

PARTS OF CNTRL MT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN STRONG AND
POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING AS MID/UPR LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVES NEWD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NRN GREAT BASIN. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL.

A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF HIGH-BASED TSTMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER 
MADISON AND GALLATIN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STRONG
CELL WAS MOVING INTO FERGUS COUNTY. FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL STORMS. SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS SWRN ID WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFT AND
MOISTENING ATOP A RELATIVELY WARM/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AROUND 40F. IN ADDITION TO HIGH DCAPE
VALUES SUGGESTING A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING
DOWNDRAFTS...EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND AID UPDRAFT
PERSISTENCE/INTENSITY AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. RESULTING
CONVECTIVE COLD POOL MAY FURTHER ORGANIZE LATER THIS EVENING AS LEE
LOW STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL MT. REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. A WATCH COULD BE ISSUED IF SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE CERTAIN OR WIDESPREAD.

..CARBIN.. 09/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

46630899 45251073 45241218 46001174 46691187 47731105
48510902 47960803 47030784 

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