[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 040712
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040712 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-040915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2140
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MN...SWRN WI...N-CENTRAL/NERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 766...

VALID 040712Z - 040915Z

ORIGINAL MCS HAS BECOME MARKEDLY OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND WEAKENED WHILE
MOVING LARGELY S OF WW AREA INTO N-CENTRAL IA. LOW LEVEL WAA ATOP
RESULTANT STABLE OUTFLOW LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS WITH OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN MN INCLUDING MSP AREA. THERE WAS NO 00Z MPX
RAOB AVAILABLE FOR MODIFICATION...HOWEVER ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDING
INDICATE ACTIVITY IS ROOTED AROUND 700 MB LEVEL WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE
1000-1500 J/KG...AND 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...USING MU LIFTED
LAYER AS BASELINE.  WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED UNDER AND SE OF THIS
ACTIVITY FOR HAIL POTENTIAL.  FARTHER W...OUTFLOW IS SHALLOWER WITH
WEAKER LIFT INDICATED...DECREASING PROBABILITY OF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT PROGRESSIVELY WWD FROM AN ULM-STC LINE.

SOME HAIL POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE BEYOND SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME OF
WW.  WW MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR INDIVIDUAL COUNTIES IN SUCH AN
EVENT. HOWEVER...PRIND THREAT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY LOCALIZED/
MARGINAL THAT BULK OF WW CAN BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.

..EDWARDS.. 09/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

42879078 44749627 46499625 44619079 

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