[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 050131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050131 
MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-050300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2142
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0831 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 050131Z - 050300Z

A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN
ND AND SD.

APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS SHOULD PROVE
SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN
DAKOTAS AND RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS
CURRENTLY MARGINAL...MORE THAN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE FOR VIGOROUS STORM UPDRAFTS.
FURTHERMORE...SHEAR AND MASS INFLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL WIND MAX SPREADS EAST AND NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

..CARBIN.. 09/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

45649776 44490002 44800023 45770012 46329995 47289971
48939949 48919733 47839686 

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