[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 040418
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040418 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-040545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2139
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...WRN WI...NRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 766...

VALID 040418Z - 040545Z

A SEVERE MCS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE MAINTAINED
INTO NRN IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS VEERING LOW LEVEL JET
PROMOTES STRONG ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION ON THE EDGE OF PLAINS
CAPPING INVERSION/INSTABILITY GRADIENT. A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED TO
THE SOUTH OF WW 766.

MCS HAS MATURED AND ACQUIRED A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS SRN/SERN MN. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE STILL
EVIDENT AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION BUT A
MESOSCALE BOWING STRUCTURE NOW APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
WASECA...STEELE...AND DODGE COUNTIES IN SERN MN. CLASSIC SUMMER MCS
PATTERN PERSISTS OVER SRN MN WITH PRONOUNCED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
OCCURRING BETWEEN LOW AND MID LEVEL WIND FLOWS...AND VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY FUELING REGENERATIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE WRN FLANK OF
THE CONVECTIVE LINE. MCS MOTION AS A RESULT OF STEERING FLOW AND
PROPAGATION IS ALMOST DUE SOUTH WHICH SHOULD BRING SEVERE POTENTIAL
INTO PARTS OF NRN IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 09/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

42819097 42669228 42689394 42989532 44759617 46459617
44569076 

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