[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 040054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040054 
SDZ000-NDZ000-040230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2137
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN SD/SRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 040054Z - 040230Z

TSTM MOVING EAST ACROSS CORSON COUNTY SD MAY PERSIST AND POSE A
THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING. IF STORMS
CAN TAKE ROOT IN THIS REGION...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER INVOF DRYLINE/WARM FRONT
INTERSECTION...AND A LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS
WRN SD...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NCNTRL SD.
THIS LONE CELL WAS TRACKING NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE VERY STRONG
SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER AS IT TAPS
GREATER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
EWD ACROSS NRN SD. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSE...AND STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AIDING
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...MAY OVERCOME MODEST CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AND LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. A WATCH WILL
BE CONSIDERED IF TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY APPEAR LIKELY TO
INCREASE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 09/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

45370053 45650126 46230105 46279902 46049758 45729697
45179671 44769672 45180009