[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 030025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030025 
SDZ000-NDZ000-030130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2132
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN-SRN ND AND NWRN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 030025Z - 030130Z

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN ND AND
NWRN SD THIS EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING TO THE SE ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS/GRADIENT INTO FAR SRN ND AND CENTRAL SD.  ISOLATED
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.  

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED NEAR
THE INTERSECTION OF THE LEE TROUGH AND RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER
FAR SWRN ND /BOWMAN COUNTY/.  THE AIR MASS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE
STORMS AND DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL SD IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE STORMS GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG/ AND
35-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.  DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE SEVERE
PARAMETERS AND THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THIS
EVENING...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE
FORMATION OF ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED STORMS.  SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER ERN MT...WITH ADDITIONAL ASCENT FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AS A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS INTO THE
NRN PLAINS.  AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE OF THE STRONGEST ELEVATED
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.  HOWEVER...IF COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY INCREASES...THEN A WW WOULD BE REQUIRED.

..PETERS.. 09/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

45650364 46330344 46580271 46220074 45479929 44399861
43509877 43269941 43750068 44520194 44720347 

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