[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 012300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012259 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-020100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2131
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0559 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS...NW OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 012259Z - 020100Z

A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SRN KS
AND NW OK AS A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES EWD. THE THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE
AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ENEWD ACROSS SERN CO. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS
SUPPORTING STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SW KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING
ASCENT AND HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN KS (MUCAPE > 1500 J/KG)
SHOULD RESULT IN A MULTICELL SEVERE THREAT. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS. IF AN MCS DEVELOPS...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ENEWD INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS.

..BROYLES.. 09/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

38369831 37849783 37399769 36599824 36279968 36320100
36900143 37750129 38290027 

WWWW