[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 030901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030900 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-031130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2133
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN ND...NERN
SD...W-CENTRAL/NWRN MN.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 030900Z - 031130Z

TREND TOWARD INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...WITH MOST
INTENSE CORES PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW OVER NWRN SD...WARM FRONT ARCHING
EWD THEN SEWD ACROSS NRN/ERN SD.  STRONG PATTERN OF ELEVATED LOW
LEVEL WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT -- N OF WARM FRONT -- WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT PARCELS TO LFC AMIDST INCREASINGLY MOIST AND BUOYANT
ENVIRONMENT ATOP RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  MODIFIED RAOBS
AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO
OVER 8 DEG C/KM AS LAYER NEAR 850 MB MOISTENS...YIELDING ELEVATED
MUCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG.  RUC ISENTROPIC PROGS INDICATE STRONGEST
LIFT MAY EXTEND EWD INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/WRN MN THROUGH
12Z...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION THERE AS
WELL.  MOST-UNSTABLE EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR PROFILES OF 40-50 KT
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CELLS TO ROTATE IN
MIDLEVELS...ENHANCING UPDRAFTS STRENGTH AND HAIL PRODUCTION
POTENTIAL.  15-20 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW IS EVIDENT FOR SLOW
MOVING CONVECTION SUCH AS THAT PRESENTLY INDICATED OVER SERN ND NEAR
850 MB WARM FRONT.

..EDWARDS.. 09/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

45049946 45419998 46280018 47580003 47959906 48039777
47779698 46739572 45659580 45109781 

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