[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 012236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012236 
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-020030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...FAR SE CO...WRN OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 012236Z - 020030Z

SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LAST A FEW MORE HOURS WITH THE
THREAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WW.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS NRN
NM WITH THE WARM SECTOR EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ERN NM. MUCAPE VALUES
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE IN ERN NM WITH 850 TO
500 MB LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS SUGGESTED BY REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT SHOULD LAST A FEW MORE
HOURS AS AN MCS ORGANIZES AND SPREADS ENEWD ACROSS NE NM.

..BROYLES.. 09/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

37150471 35210556 34490537 34680418 35110333 37160251
37530291 

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