[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Oct 29 20:23:27 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 292023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292022 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-292215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2365
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CDT SAT OCT 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN/E-CENTRAL CO...SWRN KS...WRN/CENTRAL
OK PANHANDLE...EXTREME NERN NM...EXTREME NWRN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 292022Z - 292215Z

WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH 22Z...INVOF
SFC TROUGH/CONFLUENCE LINE FROM HARDING COUNTY NM EWD ACROSS WRN
OK/NWRN TX PANHANDLES INTO SWRN KS.  MEANWHILE TSTMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ALONG AND N OF SFC COLD FRONT NOW SURGING SWD ACROSS ERN
CO.  ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE STG GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  WW
NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

VIS IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH-BASED CU AND TCU DEVELOPING ALONG AND
BEHIND SFC TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD DRIFT EWD ACROSS BACA COUNTY
CO...SWRN KS AND OK PANHANDLE BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY FRONT. DRY
DOWNSLOPING IS EVIDENT AT SFC BEHIND TROUGH...WHICH IS BECOMING
EFFECTIVE DRYLINE WITH UP TO ABOUT 20 DEG ZONAL ISODROSOTHERMAL
GRADIENT. EXPECT MOST VIGOROUS/DEEPEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND AS ACTIVITY TO ITS W CROSSES IT. 
PEAK SFC HEATING AND UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SFC DEW POINTS YIELD ABOUT
1000 J/KG MLCAPE IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS...BENEATH
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT EXCEED 9 DEG C/KM.  EFFECTIVE
SHEAR...HOWEVER...IS SMALL -- GENERALLY UNDER 30 KT.  THEREFORE
DOMINANT MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  THIS
WILL RESTRICT DURATION OF DISCRETE UPDRAFTS AND...BY
EXTENSION...LIMIT PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL SIZE.

COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 20Z FROM BETWEEN GLD-MCK SWWD TO KIOWA
COUNTY THEN WNWWD TO BETWEEN COS-PUB.  STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES ARE EVIDENT ALONG THIS FRONT...WITH 0-3 KM SRH 200-250 J/KG
BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS.  POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS APPEARS TO
CONTAIN SOME SFC-BASED BUOYANCY.  HOWEVER...FRONT WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE...MOVING SWD 15-20 KT ACROSS ERN CO...WITH ANTECEDENT
CAA LIMITING MLCAPES TO BELOW 200 J/KG.

..EDWARDS.. 10/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

35820390 36690296 37530219 38070201 38290236 38210324
38150427 38860416 39220378 39440222 39260144 38800061
37840052 36670150 35770325 

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