[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 310549
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310548 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-310745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2366
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST SUN OCT 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS...OK AND NERN TX PANHANDLES THROUGH WRN AND
CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 310548Z - 310745Z

ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LINE OF STORMS
MOVING EWD THROUGH SWRN KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
OTHERWISE...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OK NEXT FEW
HOURS. STRONGER STORMS OVER OK MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

LATE THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT CONTINUES SEWD THROUGH SRN KS AND
INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND LIFT WITHIN
THE FRONTAL ZONE IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM SWRN KS
THROUGH THE ERN OK PANHANDLE. INTENSIFYING NLY JET OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WRN KS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWD
SURGE OF COLDER AIR IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG GRADIENT FLOW WITHIN
THE FRONTAL ZONE...COINCIDENT WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION. THE
THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AFTER ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS AS THE STRONGER CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD AWAY FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW.

FARTHER EAST...THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSIFYING SLY LOW LEVEL JET AND COOLING MID
LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACCOMPANYING AN EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER OK WITHIN THE ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AND WARM ADVECTION. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500
TO 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITHIN
THE STRONGER STORMS.

..DIAL.. 10/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

34919615 34389815 35400065 36780155 38000020 37489829
36689552 

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