[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Oct 27 18:26:34 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 271826
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271825 
TXZ000-272100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2364
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271825Z - 272100Z

BLEND OF MULTICELLS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP OVER
DISCUSSION AREA DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG/BRIEFLY
SEVERE GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL POSSIBLE.  WW NOT PLANNED ATTM BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

18Z SFC DATA AND VIS CLOUD TRENDS INDICATE MAIN FRONTAL/WIND SHIFT
LINE FROM KENEDY/WILLACY COUNTIES NWWD TO NRN WEBB COUNTY.  COMBINED
SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ESTIMATED FROM ERN DUVAL COUNTY SWD
INTO NRN HIDALGO COUNTY AND SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BEFORE
LEAVING THOSE COUNTIES.  FRONT HAS STALLED AND MAY RETREAT N OVER
WEBB COUNTY AND COT AREA...AND INTERSECTS OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE LINE
OVER BROOKS COUNTY.  

LARGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ALONG AND N OF FRONT...BUT STRONGEST
SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN ALONG AND TO ITS S.  NET RESULT IS
MOST FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR SFC-BASED STORMS TO ROTATE BEING INVOF
FRONTAL ZONE...ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE ELEVATED FARTHER N TOWARD SAT
WHERE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SLIGHTLY.  ELY/ENELY FLOW NEAR
FRONT RESULTS IN ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS ESPECIALLY FOR STORMS MOVING
SWD TOWARD WARMER AIR...WITH 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG AND 40-50 KT
0-6 KM SHEAR.  WEAK WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS ARE NOTED IN 850-700 MB
LAYER OVER MUCH OF AREA.  PEAK DIURNAL HEATING WILL OFFSET MARGINAL
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG...AIDED BY
HORIZONTALLY NARROW BUT VERTICALLY THICK SLAB OF MODIFIED RETURN
FLOW AIR SAMPLED IN 12Z BRO RAOB.

..EDWARDS.. 10/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

25959713 25949720 25949724 25889729 25839736 25859741
25919754 26009764 26049790 26079818 26149838 26239851
26259867 26359877 26389909 26499912 26569916 26719920
26849928 26879933 27069946 27319950 27479948 27599951
27679970 27809986 28160006 28290028 28520036 28690047
28890060 29090067 29170078 29280082 29670134 29749915
29439815 28189778 27159787 26989690 26389645 25959648 

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