[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 221632
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221632 
NCZ000-VAZ000-221830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2352
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC THROUGH SERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221632Z - 221830Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER
PARTS OF ERN NC THROUGH SERN VA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. AREA IS
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATE THIS MORNING A WEDGE/RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SERN VA
SWWD TO ERN NC NEAR ROCKY MOUNT NC THEN SWWD TO JUST E OF CHARLOTTE.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM OFF THE SERN NC COAST NWWD TO JUST
S OF GOLDSBORO. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THESE BOUNDARIES ACROSS SERN NC
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MIX OUT N OF
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER E CNTRL THROUGH NERN NC AND SERN VA...AND
THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION NWD INTO THIS REGION WITH
MLCAPE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
CUMULUS INCREASING IN VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN
WILMINGTON AND ROCKY MOUNT WHERE LIFT IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY A
SWLY LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THIS FEATURE. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS
AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES. THE APPROACHING STRONG 70+ KT MID LEVEL JET WILL
RESULT IN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.

..DIAL.. 10/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

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