[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Oct 22 07:33:23 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 220732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220732 
NCZ000-SCZ000-220900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2351
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 220732Z - 220900Z

MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ERN NC AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR ROBESON COUNTY TO NERN NC AT CURRITUCK COUNTY. 
WW NOT ANTICIPATED.

06Z RUC SOUNDING LOCATED NEAR THE SW-NE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY IN
EAST CENTRAL NC INDICATED THAT THE INHIBITION AND OBSERVED INVERSION
LAYER BETWEEN 700-750 MB ON THE 00Z MOREHEAD CITY SOUNDING HAS
WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY TO AID IN ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. 
HOWEVER...THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS OVER THIS REGION AS
OBSERVED AT 00Z.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING EWD ACROSS VA/NC AT THIS TIME COMBINED WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH ISOLATED HAIL.  ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO...BUT THIS THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL
GIVEN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE NUMBER OF SEVERE
STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP...WHILE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.  GIVEN
THESE FACTORS...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.  ACTIVITY MAY POTENTIALLY
CONTINUE THROUGH 11-12Z AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST BY
THAT TIME FRAME.

..PETERS.. 10/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

35897731 35897672 35717649 35247693 34877787 34497863
34337911 34527954 34987932 35207879 

WWWW