[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 230913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230913 
MEZ000-NHZ000-231145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2353
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0413 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET ACROSS NRN NH AND
NWRN-CENTRAL ME

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 230913Z - 231145Z

SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED BY 12Z AND
CONTINUING FOR 2-4 HOURS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET ACROSS MUCH
OF NRN NH AND SPREADING INTO NWRN TO CENTRAL MAINE.

VIGOROUS/NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY 18Z.  TRACK OF
SURFACE LOW FROM THE CURRENT LOCATION JUST SOUTH OF MVY/ACK AT 08Z
NEWD TO BETWEEN CAPE COD AND NOVA SCOTIA BY 15Z WILL MAINTAIN AN ELY
LLJ ACROSS MAINE INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.  STRONG
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 90 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET
COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING ELY LLJ UP TO 50 KT WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPWARD MOTION FROM NRN NH TO NWRN-CENTRAL ME BY 12Z.  POINT
FORECAST SOUNDING PER NAMKF ACROSS NERN NH AT 12Z SUGGESTED HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE LIKELY MAINLY ABOVE 2000 FEET...GIVEN
SATURATED PROFILE WITH STRONG UVVS IN DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN 500-560 MB.  THIS SOUNDING APPEARS TO BE REPRESENTATIVE FOR
THE AREA OF CONCERN AND ALSO INDICATED A FAIRLY DEEP ISOTHERMAL
LAYER AROUND -2 C BETWEEN 700-850 MB WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN
AGGREGATE EFFECT ENHANCING SNOWFALL RATES.  GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE
STORM SYSTEM...THIS ISOTHERMAL LAYER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR 2-3
HOURS OVER ANY ONE AREA FROM NRN NH TO NWRN/CENTRAL ME.

..PETERS.. 10/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

45497068 45597025 45796963 46056899 45896887 45436918
45266951 45046988 44827023 44597039 44307061 44167089
43917117 43847145 43997169 44427157 44987131 45207112 

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