[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 220037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220036 
NCZ000-SCZ000-220230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 220036Z - 220230Z

INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS SUGGESTS
THAT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THIS REGION.  UPCOMING 01Z OUTLOOK IS BEING UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT WW ISSUANCE STILL APPEARS UNNECESSARY AT
THIS POINT.

DESPITE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM PER 22/00Z RAOBS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS.  RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO A MODEST STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW -- AND
ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION/QG FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH NOW ABOUT
TO CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  

WIND PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION FEATURE VEERING/INCREASING FLOW
WITH HEIGHT...AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION INDICATED BY THE MODELS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS -- AND AT LEAST A
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT -- SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 
GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS...THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY
INVOF WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS GREATER.

..GOSS.. 10/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

35917640 35267701 33787951 33288078 33478177 34438167
35587988 35947831 

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