[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 202043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202042 
MOZ000-ARZ000-202245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2347
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH SRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202042Z - 202245Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
INTENSITY OVER SRN MO AND SPREAD EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN CNTRL MO SWWD THROUGH SRN
MO AND NWRN AR. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH
E CNTRL MO AND SRN IL. ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EWD THROUGH MO PROMOTED THE EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...AND THIS HAS LIMITED THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS
MIXING OUT WITH DEEPENING CUMULUS IN S CNTRL MO ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. THE INCREASING SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG OVER SRN MO. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SRN MO. UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BUOYANCY.

..DIAL.. 10/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...

38239110 37839066 37219072 36599135 36339225 36509292
37439237 38229202 

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